Evaluating multinomial order restrictions with bridge sampling

Hypotheses concerning the distribution of multinomial proportions typically entail exact equality constraints that can be evaluated using standard tests. Whenever researchers formulate inequality constrained hypotheses, however, they must rely on sampling-based methods that are relatively inefficient and computationally expensive. To address this problem we developed a bridge sampling routine that allows an efficient evaluation of multinomial inequality constraints. An empirical application showcases that bridge sampling outperforms current Bayesian methods, especially when relatively little posterior mass falls in the restricted parameter space. The method is extended to mixtures between equality and inequality constrained hypotheses.

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