We develop a non-parametric procedure for ranking transmission lines in a power system according to the probability that they will overload due to stochastic renewable generation or demand-side load fluctuations, and compare this procedure to several benchmark approaches. Using the IEEE 39-bus test network we provide evidence that our approach, which statistically estimates the rate function for each line, is highly promising relative to alternative methods which count overload events or use incorrect parametric assumptions.

Energy systems, large deviations theory, non-parametric, ranking
doi.org/10.1109/PMAPS47429.2020.9183567
International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS 2020
Centrum Wiskunde & Informatica, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

Patch, B.J, & Zwart, A.P. (2020). Ranking transmission lines by overload probability using the empirical rate function. In 2020 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS 2020 - Proceedings. doi:10.1109/PMAPS47429.2020.9183567