On the accuracy of phase-type approximations of heavy-tailed risk models.
Numerical evaluation of ruin probabilities in the classical risk model is an important problem. If claim sizes are heavy-tailed, then such evaluations are challenging. To overcome this, an attractive way is to approximate the claim sizes with a phase-type distribution. What is not clear though is how many phases are enough in order to achieve a specific accuracy in the approximation of the ruin probability. The goals of this paper are to investigate the number of phases required so that we can achieve a prespecified accuracy for the ruin probability and to provide error bounds. Also, in the special case of a completely monotone claim size distribution we develop an algorithm to estimate the ruin probability by approximating the excess claim size distribution with a hyperexponential one. Finally, we compare our approximation with the heavy traffic and heavy tail approximations.
|THEME||Null option (theme 11)|
|Publisher||Scandinavian University Press|
|Journal||Scandinavian Actuarial Journal|
Vatamidou, E, Adan, I.J.B.F, Vlasiou, M, & Zwart, A.P. (2013). On the accuracy of phase-type approximations of heavy-tailed risk models. Scandinavian Actuarial Journal.