Model comparison for aftershock sequences following the 2005 Kashmir disaster
In an earlier study (Van Lieshout and Stein, in press) we postulated the existence of two major earthquakes in Kashmir instead of a single one, based upon the pattern of aftershocks. In this note we explore this pattern further by fitting several spatial point pattern models. In particular we discuss the Hawkes and the trigger process models for earthquake aftershock sequences following the Kashmir catastrophe in 2005. The minimum contrast method is used for estimation of the parameters. The study shows that the trigger model fits better than the Hawkes model. The most likely number of main shocks is rounded to 2 generating the almost 200 aftershocks, whereas the Hawkes model would estimate a parent process of approximately 18 parents with on average 10 descendants. We conclude that the spatial pattern of aftershocks can best be understood as being generated by the trigger point process model.
|Keywords||Hawkes process, minimum contrast method, nearest-neighbour distance distribution function, pair correlation function, trigger process.|
|MSC||Geometric probability and stochastic geometry (msc 60D05), Point processes (msc 60G55), Spatial processes (msc 62M30)|
|THEME||Logistics (theme 3), Energy (theme 4)|
|Series||CWI. Probability, Networks and Algorithms [PNA]|
|Project||Segmentation and motion analysis using polygonal Markov Fields|
Turkyilmaz, K, van Lieshout, M.N.M, & Stein, A. (2011). Model comparison for aftershock sequences following the 2005 Kashmir disaster. CWI. Probability, Networks and Algorithms [PNA]. CWI.