Earthquake modelling at the country level using aggregated spatio-temporal point processes

The goal of this paper is to derive a risk map for earthquake occurrences in Pakistan from a catalogue that contains spatial coordinates of shallow earthquakes of magnitude 4.5 or larger aggregated over calendar years. We test relative temporal stationarity and use the inhomogeneous J-function to test for inter-point interactions. We then formulate a cluster model, and deconvolve in order to calculate the risk map. The model is validated using the leave-one-out principle.